Measuring Shoreline Change Using Statistics - A Different Way To Look Toward the Future From the Past

I recently gave a presentation on a different way to calculate shoreline change and forecast future shorelines at Coastal Geotools ‘19. It is not the typical 1D analysis that we have all done - including the work I have referenced before using the nearest node technique. This 2D technique is based on probabilities and has never been used in any study I have seen. That said, it may be a bit before its time but I thought I would share it and hopefully it will raise ideas and questions - and please do hesitate to ask me if you want (keil@geosciconsultants.com). I have two links - one is a short paper and the other is a presentation.

Standard Deviation of 20 years of shoreline elevations.