Hurricane Florence – Can Politicians Learn From Their Own Success

This is a bit different, non-technical, entry, but hopefully it makes sense for how science and the future are dependent on each other.

So, I am located just outside Charleston, SC and Hurricane Florence just came ashore in Wrightsville Beach, NC – about 150 miles to the north. Today is Friday and we have been told since Monday that we are under Mandatory Evacuation orders. I have no issue with this, and understand that it is better to be cautious than not. I chose based on my reading of the models and NOAA’s mapping that in all likelihood the storm would hit NC, and they were only off by a couple of miles. Fantastic work from all involved. Some models did predict a crash course for Charleston, but in general the bulk did not, the consensus of the scientists/experts was spot on.

The Governor of SC wisely listened to these scientists as did the Governor of NC even though this storm was outside of the norm (more northerly track in black above) for all similar storms that came off of Africa ended up in same area of NC/SC. The models, like I mentioned, got it right even though the historical data was in disagreement. The Governors were wise in listening to the people who run and use the models, even if they over-reacted in my area. Did the ‘overly cautious’ reaction cause loss of revenue in most of SC – you bet – but kudos to our governments for taking action in the face of uncertainty that puts safety over costs. This why I am completely flustered/confused/etc. by our governments – especially in SC/NC – lack of action in the face of climate change.

It is the same people, using models of even higher power, who are predicting changes that the past history can not replicate. It is an analogous situation, but has a completely different course. If this hurricane preparation was a success in the eyes of the politicians – why are they following a completely different path on climate change. The science in either case is not perfect (see an example of model spread below), but the people who are familiar with the results can, and do, make sense of it. If the Governors of both states would have been following their path on climate change they would have chosen to follow history and assume Florence was going to recurve out to sea and be a non-issue; they would have been dead wrong.

Instead they listened and got it right. My hope – and I feel like something good will come out of this storm – is that the politicians begin to feel better about science and see how it can make them better at their jobs – which in turn makes it better for us citizens. Hopefully this storm can help them see outside of their political blinders – well fingers crossed anyway.