Modelling Inundation Risk From Storms and SLR - A Presentation & Whitepaper
I read the Coastal News Today and on most days there is an article on SLR and the steps being taken to inform the public and plan for future conditions. Very seldom, however, do I see anything that includes a 'weather forecast' handling of what may occur. All too often it is the choice of a specific level of SLR and it is commonly different (beyond relative SLR variations) than the adjacent state or city. This apparent shortcoming in logic limits the public's ability to trust the message; I know I would wonder why institution A says SLR is going to be 2.0 feet by 2080 and institution B says 1.2 feet by 2060. They may both be reading from the same script but the math gets confusing.
I presented my thoughts on the logic shortcoming at the recent CERF meeting in Portland, OR this past fall (see link below) and also developed a paper on the Geoscience Inundation Risk Technique. I hope this idea of using shades of grey vs. wet - dry makes some sense and I think the logic of using % risk will catch on like in a weather forecast of rain chances for next week. No one expects next Friday's forecast to spell out the exact weather - but we have all learned to deal with some unknown.